DANGER SIGNALS FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS AND HOW TO OVERCOME THEM



         T. Ray Spann, Professor, Animal Science - Dairy

     Dairy herd management makes the difference in profit or loss
in the dairy business. To be successful, you must give correct
attention to many details. Herd owners and managers should note the
11 areas below as warning signs. These are guidelines to be avoided
by doing some figuring, thinking and changing before these lows are
reached.


               Danger Signals

1.  Production per cow per year less than...
    13,500 pounds of 3.6 percent milk per cow
    11,000 pounds of 4.1 percent milk per cow
    9,000 pounds of 4.8 percent milk per cow

2.  Debt load over $2,500 per cow...
    Example: 100 cow herd, not more than $250,000

3.  Receipts minus expenses is less than $365 (cash flow)
    per cow per year...
    Example: 100 cow herd, not less than $36,500

4.  More than 20 percent debt on intermediate term...
    Example: 100 cow herd intermediate term should not
    exceed $50,000

5.  Income over feed cost is less than $3 per cow per day...

6.  Payments exceed $30 per cow per month...
    Example: 100 cow herd times $30 equals $3,000 maximum
    payments per month.

7.  Calving interval longer than 14.5 months

8.  Culling rate lower than 15 or higher than 45 percent
    per year.

9.  Milk sold per worker less than 400,000 pounds.

10. Percent of milk check spent on payments higher than
    20 percent.

11. Death loss of calves 10 percent or more per year.

     Spotting danger signals in time to take corrective action is
the key to a successful dairy operation.

                      Dairy Herd Management

     Dairy producers manage cattle, labor, capital and land.
Records are necessary to evaluate the current status of the herd,
to set herd goals, to determine appropriate strategies and to
monitor progress.  Production records on individual cows are a big
part of a good herd analysis system.

     In recent years, the Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) Program has
become more management oriented. When the information is properly
used, producers see a tremendous economic return from the
investment required to obtain the records. In Tennessee, herds on
DHI Test average 6,000 pounds more milk per cow than non-tested
herds.  With milk at $12 per hundredweight, this is $720 per cow
each year, or $72,000 for a herd of 100 cows.  The cost of a DHI
record depends on the local association doing the testing, but will
not be over $15 to $25 per cow per year. Researchers in New York
found that profits for DHI tested herds increased over time - the
more years the herd was enrolled, the greater the benefits.
  
     While DHI information is of value to those herd owners selling
breeding stock, responses to a study showed that is not a primary
purpose.  When asked why they participated in the program, dairy
producers ranked as first their desire to have monthly progress
reports on how the herd was doing.

     The following summary lists 20 cow or herd management areas,
including the high herds in Tennessee DHI, the state average and
the low herds.  High herds are those over 600 pounds of butterfat
and low herds are those 400 and below.  This gives you a quick view
of how the high herds compared in all areas.  For example, if you
compare item 3, percent days in milk, you will see the high herds
have a much higher "percent days in milk" than the low herds. Most
of the high herds at one time were probably at the low production
level. Other major differences are equally dramatic.

     A big area is feed per cow and income over feed cost.  Using
production records will help move the herd up to higher levels
Without records, it is not possible to know which cows should be
culled first as lower producers or unprofitable cows. Other
important uses of records are feeding to the potential of the cows
for production, and checking individual records to make sure cows
are peaking as high as possible. Finally, if cows drop too fast in
production, records will help find the cause. For example, on the
DHI 200 sheet under "daily milk weights," a cow will have a star by
her pounds of milk this month if it is 10 percent lower than last
month.


                              Goals

     The good dairy herd manager looks at all areas of cow and herd
performance.  Two additional tables should help pinpoint problems.
One sets goals in a number of areas and lists trouble signs for the
same area. The other table gives national herd averages, suggests
some goals and leaves a blank for each herd manager to set their
own goals.

     Through the county Agricultural Extension office, the MANAGE
program can develop individualized farm and financial plans. This
program can help the farm out of the danger zone or keep it from
getting there.


            TENNESSEE D.H.I. HERD EFFICIENCY SUMMARY
                   From Herd Summary (DHI 202)

                                        High       All DHI    Low 
Management Area:                        Herds       Herds     Herds
                                     __________ Average ___________
___________________________________________________________________
1.   Body Weight....................  1,300       1,300       1,200
2.   Number Cows per Herd...........     94          90          80
3.   Percent Days in Milk...........     87          85          80
4.   Pounds Milk Production/Cow..... 17,450      14,029       9,943
5.   Pounds Butterfat/Cow...........    636         514         367
6.   Pounds Silage/Cow.............. 18,100      16,500      13,900
7.   Pounds Hay/Cow.................  2,290       1,800       2,300
8.   Days on Pasture/Cow............     88          89          91
9.   Pounds Concentrates/Cow........  6,960       6,100       5,200
10.  Value of Product ($)/Cow.......  2,439       1,959       1,375
11.  Cost of Concentrates ($)/Cow...    614         526         441
12.  Total Feed Cost ($)/Cow........    985         836         715
13.  Income Over Feed Cost ($)/Cow..  1,454       1,123         660
14.  Feed Cost per CWT Milk.......     5.64        5.95        7.19
15.  Percent Cows with Sire I.D.....     69          26          5
16.  No. Cows Left Herd (Total per Herd) 31          27          21
17.  Percent Cows Left Herd............  31          29          29
18.  Number Left Herd:
                     a. Dairy..........   4           3          0
                     b. Low Production.   7          10         13
                     c. Repro..........   8           6          5
                     d. Disease........   5           4          4
                     e. Died...........   3           3          4
                     f. Mastitis.......   4           3          3
19.  Calving Interval (Mo.)............  13          14         15
20.  Average Days Open................. 130         136        192


           Goals and Trouble Signs for the Dairy Herd
           
     It is important to set goals, whether short- or long-term, and
make a concentrated effort to reach them.  Let's look at goals for
the dairy herd in one column and trouble signs in the other.
Holstein and Jersey are the only breeds listed; however, other
breeds can be easily compared:


                                                        Serious
Management Area:                         Goals        Trouble Signs
___________________________________________________________________

Production (Rolling Herd Averages) 
  Holstein Herds (lbs.) (3.6% BF)    Above 21,000    Below 13,500
  Jersey Herds (lbs.) (4. 8% BF)...  Above 14,000    Below 9,000

Butterfat Percent (Breed Avg.).....  Above           Below 0.3

Days in Milk (%)...................  Above 90        Below 84
Days Dry Above 70 Days (%).........  Below  5        Above 15
Days Dry Below 40 Days (%).........  Below  5        Above 10
Persistency........................  Above 105       Below 95
Peak Yield.........................  Above 60 days   Below 50 days

SCC (Linear Score)
  0, 1, 2, & 3 (%)................. Above 75         Below 50
  7, 8, & 9 (%).................... Below  4         Above  8
  1st Lact. with Low SCC (%)....... Above 80         Below 60

Reproduction
  Conception to 1st Service (%).... Above 60         Below 45     
  Requiring a 4th Service (%)...... Above 20         Below 10
  Potential Heats Detected (%)..... Above  80        Below 50
  Calving Interval (Months)........ Below  13.5      Above 14.5
  Average Days to 1st Service...... Below  75        Above 90
Calvings, Aug. 15 - Oct. 31 (%).... Above  75        Below 50
1st Lact. Calv. Age Bel 27 Mos(%).. Above 75         Below 50
Heifer Clvs Born Entering Herd(%).. Above 80         Below 70
Stillborn (Including Abortions)(%). Below 4          Above  8
Losses, Birth to Weaning (%)....... Below 3          Above 10

Weaning Age of Calves (Weeks)...... Below 6          Above  8
Percent Sire Identified............ 100              Below 75
Service Sire Quality............... 70% Pregnant to  Heifers Breed
                                    Sires Ranking    Naturally
                                    in Above 90      All Sires 
                                    Percentile       Not Above 50%
                                    _______________
                                    30% Pregnant to
                                    Sampling Sires
                                    _______________

Other:
Milk/Full Time (Inc. Feed Prod.)... Above 600,000    Below 400,000
Milk/Full Time Man (Excl. Feed Prd) Above 900,000    Below 600,000 
TDN from Concentrates (%).......... Below 50         Above 55     
                      Set a Goal Each Year

     In general, higher levels of milk and fat production per cow
within a breed are more profitable. Compare your herd to the
national breed average, then fill in the blanks. Some areas may not
apply, such as outside labor cost if only family labor is used.


                      Pounds                 Percent
Breed                  Milk          Fat       Protein        SNF*

Ayrshire              12,843         3.9         3.29         8.88
Brown Swiss           14,293         4.0         3.49         9.13
Guernsey              11,558         4.7         3.56         9.13
Holstein              17.378         3.6         3.15         8.58
Jersey                11,584         4.8         3.79         9.42

 * Solids Not Fat


Management Area:                             Goal      Your Herd

Purchased feed cost (% of milk sales)        20-30     __________
Milk sold per full-time worker (lbs)(min)  600,000     __________
Outside labor cost (percent of milk sales)   12-13     __________
Milk yield per cow (% of breed avg.)       plus 15     __________

Peak production (lbs./day)       Holstein      Jersey
  First lactation                   65           50    __________
  Later lactation                   85           60    __________
Daily milk (lbs . /day)
  All cows                          57           38    __________
  Milking cows                      69           46    __________
  
Calf mortality (percent maximum loss)          3-5     __________
Average days to first breeding......            75     __________
Average days open...................     Below 105     __________
First breeding conception rate (%)..      Above 60     __________
Days open over 100 (%)..............      Below 10     __________
Age at calving for heifer (mo.).....         23-27     __________
Service sires PD $$ (minimum).......       Plus 92     __________
Service sires PD milk (lbs. minimum)      Plus 820     __________
Retained placenta (percent).........      Below 10     __________
Average somatic cell count.......... Below 100,000     __________
Bacteria count......................  Under 10,000     __________
Rancidity (acid degree value)....... ADV Under 0.8     __________

DFS092M-1 11/88 (Rep.)  E12ù2015-00-039-89
The Agricultural Extension Service offers its programs to all
eligible persons regardless of race, color, national origin, sex
or handicap and is an Equal Opportunity Employer.
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION WORK IN AGRICULTURE AND HOME ECONOMICS
The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, U.S.
Department of Agriculture, and county governments cooperating in
furtherance of Acts of May 8 and June 30,1914.
Agricultural Extension Service     M. Lloyd Downen, Dean



%f TITLE;DANGER SIGNALS FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS AND HOW TO OVERCOME THEM
%f COLLECTION;DAIRY HERD IMPROVEMENT
%f ORIGIN;UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE
%f DATE_INCLUDED;OCTOBER, 1993
%t DANGER SIGNALS FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS AND HOW TO OVERCOME THEM